TimeformUS Race Analysis (2024)

Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 9

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1: Cancelled
Race 2: 4 - 10 - 1A - 11
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 5 - 13 - 9 - 12
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 7 - 14
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 16 - 12 - 1 - 10
Race 10: 10 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 11: 2 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 12: 3 - 5 - 1 - 16

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Excellent Timing (#1A) is now the lone representative from the Michael Dubb entry. He can obviously win, but he’s a proven quitter who probably doesn’t want to run a step beyond 6 furlongs, if even that far, at this stage of his career. He's going to be a very short price after scratches, and there is some other speed in here to keep him honest up front. Dangerous Ride (#11) is a contender on the turnback in distance, but he was pretty bad last time and I don't fully trust him to regain his form for a new barn. This race now becomes a little easier for a horse like Market Alert (#10), who has been in great form, just competing in slightly softer spots. He gets the distance and has handled wet tracks before. My top pick is Nolo Contesto (#4), who is another that needs to round back into top form. Yet I think his most recent start off a brief layoff for Fernando Abreu was a step in the right direction. That race was dominated by two speeds and this 8-year-old was actually running on gamely at the end to just miss second. He tailed off for David Jacobson at the end of last year and then tried a series of turf races, which don’t really suit him. He put in a strong effort in his return to dirt back on Dec. 9 and now he’s finally putting races back-to-back for the first time since then.

Fair Value:
#4 NOLO CONTESTO, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3

The scratch of Antonio of Venice reduces my enthusiasm for this race, but it also makes it a much less favorable spot for his main rival Doc Sullivan (#4). He settled for second behind Antonio of Venice when they met April 14. He was hitting his best stride too late that day, doing himself no favors by lugging in behind the leader when launching his run in upper stretch. That’s been a consistent problem for him, as he has a tendency to gravitate toward the rail in the stretch. That almost worked against him last time when he again lugged in behind tiring runners in upper stretch, but he was able to find a seam inside and rally to victory. This horse has real talent, but he may be best going slightly farther than this seven furlongs. The altered pace scenario now significantly favors Grand Opening (#5), who was unable to make the lead over Antonio of Venice when they met in the Times Square, but he was making his career debut that day in a very ambitious spot. He got bumped away from the gate and was ridden passively to rate in behind the winner. He actually ran on well thereafter, despite spending much of his trip in tight quarters down inside. He subsequently broke more sharply when beating maiden company in his second start at Pimlico. He registered a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which matches the best number Antonio of Venice has earned. This time he’s drawn outside of that main rival, and I would imagine the connections will look to be more aggressive here. I believe he’s as talented as anyone in this field, and he may now be ready to show it against this level of competition.

Fair Value:
#5 GRAND OPENING, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 4

The key to this N1X allowance for NY-breds is Speightful Lily (#6), who was so impressive winning her debut at Aqueduct back in January. She wasn’t beating much of a field that day, but it doesn’t matter when you draw off by nearly 15 lengths. That said, the 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned wasn’t quite as high as some other numbers assigned to the race, knocked down due to the slow pace, and I think the lower number has proven correct based on all the runbacks. She obviously disappointed last time as the 3-10 favorite, but perhaps she didn’t really want to go a mile. I still think that effort might be closer to her true ability, and didn’t want to settle for a short price while acknowledging she’s the one to beat. I’m not sure what to do with her main rival Cap Ferrat (#5), who ships up from Gulfstream for the always dangerous Saffie Joseph. She had to work hard for that victory but earned 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure that stands up to some scrutiny. She could play out as the early speed, but you have to imagine Speightful Lily will get amore aggressive ride this time. With this race being 7 furlongs, I do think there’s a chance it could come apart if those two hook up. Mommasgottagun (#7) obviously has to get faster, but she’s been green in both starts. She obviously needed her debut, like so many Linda Rice first time starters, but was running on belatedly when she finally got into the clear. Then last time she actually traveled well behind horses taking kickback but still never had great position until she found room inside in the stretch. I like the way she’s finished both times and think she can run a faster race here if she finally puts it all together. The price should be generous on a filly with upside.

Fair Value:
#7 MOMMASGOTTAGUN, at 7-2or greater

RACE 5

With this race coming off the turf, I still have some interest in the horses could stay in for dirt. Big Ego (#9) will attract most of the support as he drops in class. However, I actually thought this horse would appreciate turf, and I don’t love the way he’s been finishing off his dirt races. The class relief will benefit him, but I want to explore other options. Mama’s Middie (#13) makes some sense as he also drops out of maiden special weight company. He stayed on for second in his lone start going a mile last fall, but I’m not convinced that he really wants this distance. Mike Maker does seem to do well in these off the turf events, so I could use this horse as well as his stablemate Unaudited (#12). My top pick is actually the horse that I had picked for the turf as well. Az U Chase Me (#5) has run his best speed figures on turf and synthetic, but I think his dirt efforts are actually better than they look. He clearly needed his dirt debut here last summer, and actually put in a strong late run to get up for third against a solid field when he got back on dirt in November of last year. His only dirt effort since then came in an open company race at Gulfstream over the winter when he was badly overmatched by superior rivals. I don’t mind him getting back on this surface. He actually has more of a dirt pedigree, and goes out for a barn whose horses have been running well as of late.

Fair Value:
#5 AZ U CHASE ME, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

I could see Drake’s Passage (#2) going off at a pretty short price in this Commentator, having paired up two fast speed figures in his recent starts and now racing second off a layoff. He’s returning to the site of his Albany victory going this same distance, so he obviously handles this situation. However, he hasn’t won since then despite going off at short prices in all of his recent races. Perhaps getting back out to two turns will really benefit him, but I’m not convinced that he has as great an edge over this field as his price might suggest. He also has shown himself to prefer fast going, and he'll get a wet track today. There are several horses in this race that I don’t want at all, so it’s easy for me to narrow down the alternatives. My top pick is Sheriff Bianco (#1). Is there anything this horse can’t do? He was obviously a decent turf horse, but he’s really blossomed on dirt for Linda Rice. He doesn’t seem to have a distance preference, running competitively going short and long. I doubted his ability to get the 9 furlongs in the Empire Classic last year, but he ran well for second behind the talented Straight Arrow. He also put forth one of his best performances in this race last year, albeit going one turn at Belmont. He’s drawn the rail with tactical speed and I could see Jose Lezcano trying to wire this group, especially after the scratch of main pace rival Olympic Dreams.

Fair Value:
#1 SHERIFF BIANCO, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 11

This Bouwerie is one of the most confusing races of the day, since all of these fillies have some serious questions to answer. Landed (#7) will probably go favored after beating open company last time at Keeneland, though I thought she had all the best of it from a trip standpoint, controlling up front in a race where the entire field was bunched. She obviously ran well behind My Mane Squeeze in the Maddie May, but I’m not convinced that turning back to 7 furlongs necessarily benefits her. La Banquera (#5) is a wild card as she steps up off a debut victory at 20-1 odds. There doesn’t appear to be anything fluky about that performance, as she contested a fast pace and beat a well-meant Bill Mott second time starter. Yet she is now facing a tougher field and will have to contend with other speed. I wonder if Bernietakescharge (#9) can bounce back to form. She looked so good finishing second to My Mane Squeeze in the Franklin Square back in January, earning a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She hasn’t come close to that number since, but you can make some mild excuses for her. Switching back to dirt suits her, and 7 furlongs may be her ideal distance. My top pick is Tricky Temper (#2). She’s coming in off a layoff, but she appears to be training well up in Saratoga for Jeremiah Englehart. She showed talent as a 2-year-old, and ran better than it might appear in the Matron when encountering significant trouble at the quarter pole. She beat some decent rivals in the Key Cents, and it seemed like something might have gone wrong in the Franklin Square last time, since she didn’t work for months after that. Now she’s coming in as a fresh horse and should get some pace to close into with Joel Rosario taking over the reins.

Fair Value:
#2 TRICKY TEMPER, at 4-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 8

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1: 4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 11 - 1 - 7 - 12
Race 9: 10 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 11: 7 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 12: 8 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 13: 12 - 10 - 6 - 4
Race 14: 9 - 11 - 2 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1: #4 SUERTE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 2: #4 STORM MIAMI, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: #4 ACCRETIVE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7: #4 SOUL OF AN ANGEL, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8: #11 MAXIMUS MERIDIUS, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: #10 ALOGON, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 10: #3 POST TIME, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, June 7

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1: 3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 3: 6 - 9 - 11 - 5
Race 4: 11 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 5: 12 - 11 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 8: 1A - 12 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 10: 2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 11: 11 - 13 - 5 - 3
Race 12: 6 - 3 - 9 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

It feels like there could be some buzz around a couple of first time starters in this opener. Trulli Warrior (#1) sports a very fast gate workout last week at Belmont, and those back-to-back gate drills coming into this race are usually a sign that he’s sending out a live one. I prefer him to his uncoupled stablemate, but I am a little concerned that he’s breaking from the rail going 7 furlongs with a pedigree to go longer. Clever Mischief (#7) is the other one that I’m expecting to attract support. He’s been working competitively in the morning with some pretty good horses, working well with New York-bred winner Saint Gaudens on May 25 before working holding his own against Tuscan Gold, who was third in the Louisiana Derby. This horse is from a strong female family, the dam being a half-sister to multiple stakes winners Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. Yet I wanted to side with experience in this spot. Commander of Truth (#5) is the other Chad Brown horse, and he merits respect for finishing third behind his promising stablemate Unmatched Wisdom last time. He strikes me as a horse that may appreciate this turnback in distance, and I’m viewing him as a contender. My top pick is Pentathlon (#3). We haven’t seen this horse since last fall, but he competed in some pretty tough maiden special weight events during his 2-year-old season. He ran into the likes of Just Steel and Locked on debut, and then showed real progression when stretched out to a mile for his second start, won by subsequent stakes winner Drum Roll Please. I don’t mind him starting up against at 7 furlongs, and think he still has plenty of upside returning as a 3-year-old.

Fair Value:
#3 PENTATHLON, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

This starter allowance early on Friday is one of the most wide open races on a fantastic card. Lucency (#9) and Debate (#8) could vie for favoritism after finishing second and third, respectively, in a similar spot at Aqueduct in early May. However, neither one is especially formidable. Lucency had no excuse to lose last time after getting a great trip, and now has to hold his form for a low-profile barn. Debate will appreciate this turnback, but has still been a mild disappointment since the claim by Linda Rice. A couple of key speeds have scratched out of this race, which makes me more interested in Notah (#4), who was unable to make the lead breaking from the rail last time. He was off a step slow and tried to rush up before settling into a stalking trip. That pace was pretty fast and he did well to battle on for second in a race from which the first and third-place finishers have both returned to run well. This race now doesn't set up quite as well for Proven Hope (#5), who has been in career-best form since switching into the barn of Ed Barker. He’s been racing over longer distances recently, but probably found the 1 1/8 miles to be a little too far last time, especially after going four wide around both turns. He figures to save more ground with Trevor McCarthy taking over. My top pick is Leftembhind (#11), who might be a little more adaptable from a pace standpoint. This gelding took a big step forward at Saratoga last summer, following up his maiden victory with a couple of significantly improved speed figures against allowance foes. He continued his rise on the turf, getting elevated to second in a statebred allowance when mildly affected by some stretch traffic last fall. He concluded his season back on dirt, missing by less than a length going this distance despite racing five wide and trying to close into a slow pace. He came off a layoff last time and got a terrible trip on the turf, again compromised by a dawdling pace while going four wide around both turns. He’s better than those recent results indicate, and I believe he can continue his progression here. He thrived up in Saratoga last year, and shows a bullet workout for the return to dirt.

Fair Value:
#11 LEFTEMBEHIND, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

It’s unclear if ML favorite Clear the Air (#3) will run here or in a stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday. He’s obviously a contender if he lands in this spot, having run extremely well in his turf victory at Keeneland two back. He attacked a fast pace that day and did well to hold on late. I wasn’t as thrilled with his most recent effort at Churchill, but he is now drawn well towards the inside. I would prefer him to the other horse who could take money, Mischievous Angel (#10). This lightly raced runner is 2-for-2 sprinting on turf, but both victories have come against weaker company than this, and now he’s getting a significant class test. I’m also not convinced he’s going to be as effective turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs. Script (#2) is an interesting prospect trying a turf sprint for the first time. He was entered for turf last time but still ran well going 5 furlongs on synthetic when that race was rained off. He hadn’t really been finishing off his two-turn races, so perhaps this shorter distance will benefit him. Yet I’m most interested in the two horses drawn in the far outside posts. Fluid Situation (#11) may appear to be slightly off form, but he’s just not as good on the dirt, and last time got the wrong trip, making an early move into a fast pace that came apart. He won at this level just three starts back with a performance that would make him competitive here, and he figures to be a generous price this time. My top pick is Senbei (#12), who ran quite well when he first got on turf in July of last year, nearly hanging on at 7 furlongs with a strong 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He then got a tough trip in his only other turf attempt last August, racing on the inside part of the Mellon turf course, which probably wasn’t the place to be, and then getting completely blocked in traffic through the stretch. I don’t care too much about the synthetic race last time, and now he's returning from a layoff getting back to what is likely his preferred surface.

Fair Value:
#12 SENBEI, at 9-2 or greater
#11 FLUID SITUATION, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 6

I spent as much time handicapping this race as I did any on this Friday card. There are just so many interesting things going on, so I really hope it stays on the turf. The obvious horse to beat is Spirit Prince (#6), who took 5 starts to break his maiden last year, but did so against stakes company and is proven against legitimate competition. However, now he’s returning from a layoff for Christophe Clement, who is just 25 for 153 (16%, $1.19 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years. I preferred some bigger prices. One to consider coming out of that same Central Park Stakes is Sanderson (#11), who was quickly making up ground along the inside through the stretch that day. He seemed like a horse that was really coming around at the end of last year, and now he makes his first start for Cherie DeVaux, who is 10 for 48 (21%, $4.17 ROI) off trainer switches over the last 5 years. Hunt Ball (#3) feels like a horse that’s headed in the right direction for Bill Mott, but this half-brother to Cody’s Wish has been popular with the bettors and I didn’t view him as a particularly clever option in this spot. I have a similar view of Army Officer (#9), who makes plenty of sense off that recent runner-up performance at Churchill Downs. Yet he got a very good trip and now isn’t drawn as well towards the outside. I actually prefer Tifareeh (#10) from that same spot. I’m never going to be too hard on horses for failing to run well over the Churchill turf course, and he lost some momentum when stuck in behind foes in upper stretch. I really liked his race two back where he was closing best of all behind some talented runners, including future G2 American Turf winner Trikari. I also think this one-mile distance will be right up his alley. My top pick is a bit more of a reach. Aleah Aleah (#2) obviously needs to improve, but he’s a horse that I’ve been waiting to see get a chance on the turf. He’s certainly bred for this surface, being a half-brother to G3-placed turfer Traipsing as well as turf winner Script. He’s steadily improved through his recent races. Yet what really makes him interesting here is his early speed. It doesn’t seem like there are too many frontrunners in this field, and inside posts tend to make horses with tactical speed very dangerous going a mile on the inner turf at Saratoga. Kendrick Carmouche will be aware of that and send him to the front, and he may take them a long way at a big price.

Fair Value:
#2 ALEAH ALEAH, at 10-1 or greater
#10 TIFAREEH, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

I’m committed to taking a shot against heavy favorite Munnys Gold (#4) as she returns from a layoff. This filly was absolutely brilliant in a couple of races early in her career, but she was a mild disappointment thereafter, losing the Eight Belles at a short price before failing to capitalize on her return to sprinting in the Test. Now she returns from a layoff, and I think it’s worth remembering that she wasn’t at her very best when she came off a layoff last season to beat an overmatched field in Florida. Her workouts for this return have been slow and steady, not looking flashy at all in the mornings. I also find it odd that Pletcher is wasting a start on this N1X allowance, which she is technically eligible for despite being a 3-time winner, when there are sprint stakes that would seemingly fit her. I’m skeptical she’s going to be bounce back to form, and I want to look elsewhere. I think the most logical alternative is Roswell (#3), who has shown the ability to rate and pass horses, which is a valuable asset in a race loaded with early speed. She just gave me the impression that the added distance wasn’t helping last time when she hung in the late stages, so I like this turnback to 6 furlongs. I was considering both Wesley Ward trainees in here, and I found it interesting that John Velazquez, who rode Sam’s Treasure (#8) and Kehoe Beach (#5) lands on the latter filly. Then I watched their May 26 workout in company together, and Kehoe Beach was clearly best over Sam’s Treasure. Perhaps that won’t translate to the afternoon, but the more I looked at Kehoe Beach, the more I liked her. She set an extremely fast pace before fading on debut at Turfway, and she showed last time that she’s simply a better dirt horse. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her dangerous here, and she might play out as the speed of the speed at a square price.

Fair Value:
#5 KEHOE BEACH, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

There’s no doubt that Mission of Joy (#1) and Evvie Jets (#5) have some credentials, but it does appear that both of them are in a little tough against this quintet of Chad Brown trainees. Yet deciphering which of those Brown runners will in is still a real puzzle. The most accomplished horse in here among them is clearly Gina Romantica (#3), a multiple Grade 1 winner who only lost by a length in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. Her return from the layoff in the Jenny Wiley was pretty disappointing, especially considering that it was at Keeneland where she’s had most of her success. Yet the pace of that affair just didn’t suit her, and she figures to be sharper for this race. Whitebeam (#7) is another looking to bounce back to Grade 1 form, having lost her three races since upsetting In Italian in last summer’s Diana. Her First Lady wasn’t a good effort, but she never seemed to settle that day. I actually thought she ran well in defeat in both starts since then, chasing a fast pace in the Matriarch before getting involved in an early duel in the Beaugay off a layoff last time. She also has a right to move forward here, and I’m not sure she’s going to be quite as short as I have her on the ML. Chili Flag (#6) and Coppice (#4) finished just a neck apart in the Distaff Turf Mile going this distance on Derby day. I thought both got great setups in a race that completely fell apart late, with Coppice getting an especially savvy ride from Frankie Dettori, who saved ground while making the late run. That said, I still think it’s fair to view Coppice as the one with more upside as she makes her second U.S. start, whereas Chili Flag may have already reached her ceiling. There also isn’t much pace signed on here, and Coppice might possess a little more tactical speed. My top pick is a total “last time was the time” type, but I had Beaute Cachee (#2) last time so I don’t feel too bad about going back to her here. She was somewhat fortunate in the Jenny Wiley, allowed to get away with a slow pace before sprinting home. Yet I’ll reiterate the case I made for her heading into that last race. She had steadily improved last season, and ran better than it might appear in the Matriarch, getting cut off in upper stretch before coming on again late. She’s been a horse who showed a tendency to get very headstrong in her races last year, so sending her to the front last time was the perfect solution. It allowed her to relax, and she displayed a more potent finish. There are other potential speeds in here, but I don’t see why Chad Brown would change the plan. She figures to go to the lead again, and I actually like her going a little shorter. She won’t be 25-1 this time, but I still think her price is likely to be more than fair.

Fair Value:
#2 BEAUTE CACHEE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 11

This New York is the most fascinating race of the day from a handicapping perspective. You can make a valid case for nearly every horse in this field. Given the wide open nature of the field, I don’t want to settle for a short price on English Rose (#2). This filly is obviously one of the most likely winners of this race, but these Godolphin/Appleby runners often get overbet, and I think she looks a little better than she is based on a rail-skimming trip in the Jenny Wiley last time. She did fight restraint during the early part of that race, but was just following the winner home late. It’s unclear if she gets better with added ground, and I wanted to look elsewhere for value. Didia (#3) is a viable alternative. The difference between she and the favorite last time might have just come down to ground loss. She’s handled this distance before, and actually ran a lot better than it might appear in the Breeders’ Cup at the end of her 2023 campaign. I’m a little against the other likely favorite War Like Goddess (#10), who missed a planned start to her campaign at Keeneland, and might just be getting some experience going a distance that is too short for her. I have three horses that really interest me from a value standpoint in this spot. The shortest price among them is probably American Sonja (#5), who returns to the U.S. after finishing second in the Saratoga Oaks here last summer. I think she’s run well in almost all of her European starts, and she arguably took a step forward in her 4-year-old debut last time, impressively defeating a solid field in France. She’s handy enough to work out a stalking trip, and goes out for a dangerous barn. Surprisingly (#13) figures to get dismissed here due to the wide draw and poor result last time. Yet she never was in great position early in that Modesty and was stymied in traffic at a critical point in upper stretch. Both of her prior performances for Todd Pletcher were good, including a narrow loss to Didia, who will be a much shorter price in this spot. Flavien Prat is almost guaranteed to give her a better ride this time, and I think she can rebound at a price. My top pick is Star Fortress (#11). This mare was so impressive winning her U.S. debut in the Cardinal last year, earning a massive 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet give in the ground likely had a lot to do with that win, bringing out her stamina over a demanding course. She only beat 3 rivals home over the course of her next 3 starts, but she had excuses in all of those races. She refused to settle and got a wide trip in the Pegasus, then was pace-compromised in the Hillsborough and Jenny Wiley. They finally tried to make use of that ample stamina, stretching her out to 11 furlongs last time, and it got her back on track. Yet what I really liked about that narrow loss in the Sheepshead Bay is that she settled better and produced a sprint finish into an extremely slow pace. She’s stepping up against tougher this time, but the potential is there to compete at this level and she’s going to be another generous price.

Fair Value:
#11 STAR FORTRESS, at 10-1 or greater
#13 SURPRISINGLY, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 12

They key question heading into this Acorn is how much the sloppy track influenced the result of the Kentucky Oaks. Perhaps Thorpedo Anna (#9) is actually just lengths better than everyone else in this division. Yet I also think it’s possible that she just really handled the wet surface at Churchill last time in a race where others clearly struggled with the going. She set legitimate fractions up front, but also benefited from staying out of the kickback. The good news for Thorpedo Anna is that it’s not as if that’s her only strong effort. She’s run well in every start, and had a legitimate excuse in her lone loss last year. I just don’t know how much of an advantage she really has over this field, and I’m not willing to take a short price on her. Just F Y I (#4) might seem like the most logical alternative to turn the tables, but it’s not like she had any major trouble in the Kentucky Oaks. She was simply second best that day. The argument for her is that she was just making her second start off the layoff after missing a planned seasonal debut. Now she’s had those two races under her belt and might be ready for a step forward. I think there’s something to that, but I also don’t think she’s going to be that enticing a price. The horse that clearly hated the racetrack in the Oaks is Leslie’s Rose (#3). Her performance was so poor that it’s hard to just blame the post position or the added distance. She showed that she belongs at this level in the Ashland, earning the same 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Thorpedo Anna got for her Oaks victory. It’s a good sign that she’s coming back in this spot, and her most recent workout suggests she’s ready to rebound. My top pick is Where’s My Ring (#6). Nothing went right for her in the Kentucky Oaks. She hopped at the start and got rank while racing in heavy traffic into the clubhouse turn. When she finally got into a rhythm heading into the far turn, she then took a hard bump at the three-eighths pole and had to steady. She still never threw in the towel despite getting beaten a long way. She had been in great form coming into that start, decisively winning the Gazelle by 4 lengths. That form was flattered when Regulatory Risk was third in the Oaks. Distance is no concern for this filly, and I think she’s going to bounce back with a better trip.

Fair Value:
#6 WHERE'S MY RING, at 5-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Thursday, June 6

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1: 2 - 7 - 10 - 6
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 11 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 1/1A - 5 - 4
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8: 13 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 10: 6 - 11 - 12 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 6

I’m rarely looking to take extremely short prices on first time starters, and the Todd Pletcher pair of Chanteuse (#1) and Audacious (#1A) figures to attract plenty of tote support as they each make their debuts for Bass Stables. It’s hard to separate these two fillies, who have obviously been working together up at Saratoga for the past month. In the lone video available, Chanteuse appeared to be traveling slightly better than Audacious in that swift 5-furlong drill on May 16. However, Audacious shows the faster gate workout clocking on May 22. Both are daughters of Into Mischief with solid dam’s side pedigrees, Chanteuse being a half-sister to Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon, whereas Audacious is from the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Elate. They’re the two main players, but this is not an entry I’m looking to bet. Some of the alternatives who could take money don’t do much for me. I’m not sure what to expect from She’s Wicked Smart (#5), who was third behind Just F Y I as a 2-year-old, but is making her belated 3-year-old debut after she was a vet scratch at Keeneland in April. Neat Trick (#9) earned her best speed figure behind the highly regarded Sedona in March, but she regressed sharply last time and is tough to trust. My top pick is Montego Bay (#3). She’s another returning from a layoff, but I didn’t think she had an opportunity show her true talent on debut last September. She moved up between horses from the start to lead the field on the backstretch. Yet Jose Lezcano then made the decision to rein her in to rate behind horses outside of him. This filly reacted badly to that bit of education, racing greenly while getting shuffled back around the turn. I think she’s better than that result indicates, and may fly under the radar with the entry attracting so much attention.

Fair Value:
#3 MONTEGO BAY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

I’m skeptical that any races beyond the stakes will stay on the turf on Thursday, but this race interests me on either surface. On grass, I view All Good Here (#7) as the horse to beat, and a deserving favorite. At first glance his second-place finish at 22-1 last June might look like some kind of fluke, but he had some excuses in his first couple of turf starts. He was contesting a fast pace on debut at Tampa in a race won by the very promising Equitize. He then had some significant trouble around the far turn of his second start. So he was sitting on an improved performance last summer, and he showed his affinity for turf before going to the sidelines. Christophe Clement doesn’t have the strongest statistics off layoffs, and this horse was a vet scratch in late April. Yet he does figure to be tough if he returns with his best effort. The horse who interests me most on the turf is actually a runner stuck on the AE list. Charles J (#13) would need to work out a trip from a wide draw even if he gets into this field, but he does get a rider upgrade to Frankie Dettori for this race. He showed some turf ability on debut when facing a solid field of winners at Laurel last year. He subsequently failed to handle dirt as well, but did run better than it looks when badly shuffled around the turn of that Feb. 11 affair. He got back on turf last time, but was cutting all the way back to 6 furlongs, and that might just be too short for him. I like the stretch-out, and think he still has upside as a lightly raced 3-year-old. // On dirt, Iron Man Ira (#16) figures to go off at a short price if he gets in from the MTO list, needing 6 scratches to do so. He’s run well in both starts for Rick Dutrow, contesting fast paces in a pair of races that were won by closers earlier this spring. His TimeformUS Speed Figures in the mid-90s just make him faster than this group, so he’s a legitimate favorite. I would just be a little more interested in Mission Hill (#9) if this comes off the turf. He’s also a contender on grass, but I actually like his dirt race better than either of his turf efforts. He got a good trip stalking the pace but was making a bold rally up the rail in the stretch before getting cut off by the eventual winner. That race didn’t get much of a speed figure at the time, but horses have returned from it to improve. Winner Bourbon Chase finished third against a tougher allowance field next time, and third-place Lt. Mitchell improved his speed figure by 16 points in his next start. Mission Hill appears to be training well for the return, and I think he's especially dangerous if this is contested over dirt.

Fair Value:
#13 CHARLES J, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

This Astoria features a bit more form to latch onto than the firster-dominated Tremont earlier in the day. West Memorial (#4) is the most accomplished runner in the field, having won a stakes on the same day Long Neck Paula made her debut. West Memorial beat males in that Kentucky Juvenile, but she got a very good trip to do so. She’s since been transferred to Peter Gulyas, who is deputizing for the provisionally suspended George Weaver. French Horn (#3) exits a debut victory at Woodbine for Mark Casse where she only beat 3 rivals while uncontested up front throughout. However, she has since worked very well on the dirt and is certainly bred to handle this surface, being out of G1 Prioress winner Emma’s Encore. I just want to get a little more creative with a horse who could fly under the radar. Whatintheliteral (#1) comes into this stakes attempt still a maiden, but that’s no concern at this time of year. She finished far back on debut at Keeneland, but she got a strange trip that day. She actually broke on top and was leading after a half-furlong before she seemingly got intimidated by horses rushing over from the outside. Javier Castellano grabbed her, and she plummeted to the back of the pack. She actually recovered decently to rally mildly late in a better effort than the result suggests. She was a little more professional in her second start, but again didn’t take the turn well, losing position before rallying on again late. That’s been a productive race, as the 4th-place finisher returned win with a 17-point TimeformUS Figure improvement, and the 5th-place finisher came back to run second, improving by 13 points. I think this filly is capable of better if she can put it together. She’s shown the ability to pass horses, and there does appear to be a fair amount of speed in this field.

Fair Value:
#1 WHATINTHELITERAL, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

Siskany (#12) delivered as the 4-5 favorite in last year’s Belmont Gold Cup, and he figures to be a similar price again as he seeks a repeat victory in the race. However, he benefited from a perfect trip from post position 2 when he won last summer, and he was done no favors at the draw this time, getting mired in the far outside slot. That could be real disadvantage in a race that will be now contested around 4 turns at Saratoga. He still might be too classy for this group. He appeared to get back into top form this winter in Dubai, winning a pair of marathon stakes before finishing a respectable fourth against a salty group in the Dubai Gold Cup. A repeat of that performance will put him in the winner’s circle here. However, he hasn’t always been at his best over yielding or soft ground, and there’s a rainy forecast for Thursday. These connections tend to pull in a ton of plenty of support, and I suspect he may be an underlay. Main rival The Grey Wizard (#11) will try to turn the tables on the favorite after finishing second to Siskany last season. He had the tougher journey that day, racing wide throughout from post 13 and staying on gamely to only get beaten by a couple of lengths. His form left him thereafter, but he took a step in the right direction last time, closing well in the Louisville at Churchill, which was dominated by a front-running winner. He’s unproven over truly wet ground, but I’m viewing him as a top contender nonetheless. I prefer an alternative that appears to have a little more upside. Champagne Juan (#6) obviously has quite a bit to prove from a class standpoint, as he makes his stakes debut while stretching all the way out to 2 miles. However, this son of Justify has been improving as the distances get longer. He hit his best stride too late in that first attempt going 1 1/2 miles at Gulfstream, where he was compromised by a slow pace. The most recent Keeneland race brought out more of his stamina, as he sliced between horses in mid-stretch to win going away late. He only got a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, but the form was flattered when third-place finisher Truly Quality returned to win a turf race by 6 lengths with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This is a big step up in class, but he still has significant upside and should be suited by this longer trip.

Fair Value:
#6 CHAMPAGNE JUAN, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 4

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 7 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 10 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 10 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 11: 8 - 12 - 11 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

As connections try to get a final start in before the end of this Saratoga meet, it’s interesting to note that 3 of the runners in the main body of this field are actually fillies facing males. Among those are two who could take plenty of money. Marco T. (#5) ran well on debut in May, chasing home a couple of fillies with ability, including Sam’s Treasure, who won her next start on dirt. It helps that she’s moving into New York-bred company this time, but she’s been off for a while and figures to take plenty of money with that exposed turf form. Another filly, Red Burgundy (#2) also has some prior experience, though she’ll be getting on the grass for the first time. She showed good speed on debut before fading. Yet she is supposed to appreciate this surface switch, by Noble Mission and a half-sister to multiple turf winner Collaboration. Linda Rice sends out Wine Responsibly (#9), who might be most interesting of the first time starters. This one has been working pretty well, and the dam did win her debut sprinting on grass before turning out to be more of a dirt horse. My top pick at a big price is first time turfer Dixie Pharaoh (#7). I like the progeny of American Pharoah on the turf, and he’s a 12% turf sprint sire. There isn’t an abundance of grass pedigree on the dam’s side, but this one strikes me as one that might handle the surface. He has some good extension and float to his stride, and he seemed to move much better over that sealed track on debut than he did a harrowed track last time. That can sometimes be indicative of a horse with turf inclination, and he figures to be a price for sharp connections.

Fair Value:
#7 DIXIE PHARAOH, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 2

If she repeats her last race, Just Katherine (#3) will be too strong for this group to handle. She went off as a price in that 4-horse Wilton, but was the only one within hailing distance of winner Randomized at the end. She was also the only horse to make up any ground in a race dominated on the front end through moderate fractions. The concern is that she was clearly geared up to run her best race that day, and now she’s coming back nearly two months later with just one workout showing. The connections have opted to forgo some tougher stakes assignments for this allowance race going 9 furlongs. The distance is also a real question mark for her, as a daughter of Justify. I want to go in a different direction and look to some fillies exiting the Aug. 9 race at this level. Coppa Girl (#6) narrowly lost a photo finish that day after being hard ridden to secure a brief lead in mid-stretch. She had been somewhat unlucky in the first two starts of her career, but put it all together to break her maiden two back before that solid allowance try. She makes sense, but I’m more interested in a horse who finished behind her last time. Raging Sea (#8) was overbet on that occasion, going off at even-money based primarily on her 2-year-old form. She didn’t show much progression in that first start off the layoff, but she also didn’t get the easiest trip. Without much pace signed on, she was forced to set the pace, which surely wasn’t the connections’ preference. This time she’s drawn outside all of her main rivals and can sit a better stalking trip. She gets Lasix for the first time, and she’s always been cut out to go these longer distances, so I like the stretch-out for her more than anyone else.

Fair Value:
#8 RAGING SEA, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 5

The filly Voleuse (#4) takes on the boys here in this New York-bred maiden race, and she appears to fit pretty well. She had run deceptively well in the first two turf starts of her career before her connections focused on dirt for a series of races. She finally got back on grass off the layoff last time and showed her affinity for the surface. Yet she wasn’t facing the strongest field that day and seemingly had the run won in upper stretch before hanging in the late stages. She’s a little tough for me to endorse in this spot off that performance, though she does have a right to move forward second off the layoff. Among her main rivals is Scherzando (#6), who may get somewhat dismissed here due to his 0 for 18 lifetime record. However. He’s only made 5 of those starts on turf, and is clearly best on this surface. I think he has a chance to cause the upset, though he really needs the trip to workout, as he does have a tendency to hang. I’m also mildly intrigued by the unfortunately named first time starter Sondsliksomdiniddo (#10). This gelding is a full-brother to the ill-fated Butter Lou, who did win his only start sprinting on turf. He appears to be training decently and will be a price in here. My top pick is Okaloosa (#3) as he gets on turf for the first time. I thought this horse was training pretty well for his debut two weeks ago, but he was obviously more turf meant despite staying in that off the turf race. He actually ran a nice race, stalking the pace before making a menacing move up the rail, only to flatten out late. His dam was strictly a turf horse who won 3 times on this surface. Horacio De Paz has good numbers with second time starters, and I think this horse is going to take a step forward getting on grass.

Fair Value:
#3 OKALOOSA, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

There are many ways to go in this competitive state-bred allowance affair. The one they all have to beat is Overacting (#7), who did win her debut in an unconventional fashion, running off on the front end before coming back to the field, only to kick on late. It’s hard for me to gauge the quality of that race, since most of the runbacks came in an off the turf race last week. She got very keyed up prior to the start that day, as the field was sent right to the gate with no warm-up as they tried to run the race around a rainstorm. She used that nervous energy to her advantage that day, but I wonder if she’ll be as effective using that same style here. She’s also drawn outside of her main pace rival Spooky Lady, who seems more likely to secure that coveted rail position. The main rival for the Chad Brown runner is Waterville (#10), who put in a strong effort to close for second at this level two back. She got a great tri that day, but still did well to close in a race dominated towards the front end. Her last start was a little disappointing, but she was always too far back and actually ran on well towards the end. I expect her to do better here with Flavien Prat taking over again. There are some others who participated in that July 15 event, including Sals Dream Girl (#5), who could never really mount a rally after trying to make up ground outside. My top pick is the last-place finisher in that July 15 affair. Sweetest Princess (#2). The trip didn’t work out for her, as she was forced to race wide every step of the way after breaking from an outside post position. She had run much better than that in all of her prior turf starts, yet had been similarly unlucky on both April 8 and May 29, sustaining wide trips on each of those occasions as well. She actually bounced back a bit on dirt last time, and now returns to her preferred surface after being claimed by a new barn. She’s finally drawn an advantageous inside post position and figures to fly under the radar.

Fair Value:
#2 SWEETEST PRINCESS, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Win for Gold (#8) has to be considered the horse to beat as he moves into this New York-bred allowance race after finally winning his starter allowance condition in his 6th consecutive attempt last time. He’s been in strong form for a while now, but just kept finding a superior rival in those races. He put it all together against the right field on Aug. 17, earning a career-best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, but I do wonder if he might have a regression coming as he runs back in just 18 days. Be the Boss (#6) might also attract some support off a solid effort at this level last time. However, I’m a little concerned about the turnback to 6 furlongs for him. He’s never run quite this short on the dirt, and he prefers to be forwardly placed in a race that features plenty of other speed, including Win for Gold. Callaloo (#9) would be a strong option to com running late if not for the layoff. It’s just a little hard to trust him to come back into top form in his first race in over 5 months, but he’s certainly capable on his best day. My top pick is Always Charming (#10). This isn’t the type of horse I usually go for, since there’s a chance he could take some of that Irad Ortiz money. I think he’s just a very logical, likely winner of this race. He’s shown a propensity to break a step slowly in his last couple of starts, and I think that negative trait could be mitigated by the outside draw on this occasion. He ran very well behind a razor sharp Ocean’s Reserve two back, and then last time didn’t get an ideal trip when caught in behind horses for much of the stretch drive. He looks like the one to beat to me, and he might not go favored.

Fair Value:
#10 ALWAYS CHARMING, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10

This Hopeful is one of the strongest editions of this race that I can ever remember. Not only does there appear to be some serious talent in this field, but it’s a fascinating race to handicap, with many viable options. Muth is no longer one of those, as he was scratched this morning, leaving just one Bob Baffert trainee in this field. Mission Beach (#4) seems like he might have more developing to do, but he didn’t run that fast on debut, and I think others are more interesting. Timberlake (#5) will surely attract plenty of support as he makes his stakes debut for Brad Cox. This colt didn’t get the right trip on debut when hung out wide in a rail-dominated race, but he put it all together with the blinkers added last time. He spurted away early and never looked back, drawing off to a powerful score. His 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied with Muth for the highest number in the field. Furthermore, he’s been working exceptionally well since that race, turning in one of the most impressive drills I’ve seen all summer on Aug. 20. That said, he figures to get bet off those workouts, and I think others may offer better value. Steve Asmussen has a strong pair of contenders. Valentine Candy (#9) won his debut in gritty fashion, as he rocketed out of the gate, set a contested pace, and turned away multiple challengers. That initially looked like a slow race, but the TimeformUS Speed Figure has since been revised to reflect how strong the runbacks have been. He showed stamina to survive that pace scenario on debut, so I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out. Gold Sweep (#6) also merits strong consideration. He was all the rage after winning the Tremont so impressively, but he metaphorically stubbed his toe when disappointing as a heavy favorite in the Sanford. He did have a legitimate excuse, stumbling at the start, which put him out of position throughout. I think we’re going to see a much better effort his time, and all the speed signed on here should suit him. My top pick is Be You (#10). He'sthe only maiden in this field, but still ran well enough on debut to win most of the maiden races at this met. The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure he was assigned for that narrow loss to today’s rival Just Steel was arguably flattered earlier this week when Locked returned to win so impressively. Whereas Be You was drawn the rail in that first start, Just Steel had the 10 post position and took advantage of it. This time the post positions are reversed, and I think that’s going to help Be You settle into the race. He has worked well since that race, going slightly better than Sapling winner Noted in that Aug. 19 drill. He’s supposed to love the extra furlong of this race, and doesn’t need to progress much to beat this field.

Fair Value:
#10 BE YOU, at 3-1 or greater
#9 VALENTINE CANDY, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 11

There isn’t that much turf form on which to base opinions in this state-bred maiden finale. Lt. Mitchell (#11) has clearly run the best turf races of anyone, having hit the board in his last couple of outings on grass. He encountered some minor traffic trouble in the stretch of that June 1 event at this level before running on for third. He participated in a couple off the turf races earlier in the meet, but got back on grass last time and put in another respectable showing. He got a good trip stalking a moderate pace but just couldn’t see it out. He makes sense here against what might be a softer field, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. Chad Brown sends out one of the wild cards in here in first time starter Fake Celebrity (#5). There is some turf pedigree here, but it’s not as if he’s overwhelmingly bred for this surface. Practical Joke is just a 6% turf route sire, according to DRF Formulator’s sire stats. The dam did win on the turf and place in a stakes on grass, but her best foal Brooklyn Strong was a dirt router. He’s likely to take money by default and I want to look elsewhere. Among the first time turfers, Scaramanga (#12) might be most interesting. He’s by good all around sire Munnings, and the dam was a 6-time winner on turf who was strictly a grass horse, not running nearly as well on dirt. He’s faded in all of his dirt races, but he might have needed this switch to turf all along. My top pick is Chulligan (#8). He’s another who is fairly inexperienced on grass, with just one prior start over the surface. That came off a layoff last time at Belmont, and the trip just didn’t work out for him. He broke fine, but then got steadied back a few strides away from the gate, relegating him to the back of the pack early. He tried to advance around the turn, but got forced to move prematurely by a rival to his outside and then got squeezed back between horses while in the midst of his run. He probably needed that start off a long layoff, and now he’s coming back for the second race of his 3-year-old season against what appears to be a softer field. He’s certainly bred to move forward on turf.

Fair Value:
#8 CHULLIGAN, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 3

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 5 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 2 - 9
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 9 - 1A
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 10 - 11
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 10: 1 - 7 - 13 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

There’s no lack of turf form in this intriguing maiden event that opens the card. A few of these fillies ran quite well in their grass debuts earlier in the meet. That group is led by Weigh the Risks (#8), who was all the rage getting bet down to even-money on debut. She ran pretty well, but couldn’t quite stay with Ozara in the late stages as that one got a perfect trip. No speed figure was assigned to that race, but it’s a good sign that those two drew clear of the rest. She makes sense here, but it’s unclear if she has much of an edge over horses like Later Darling (#5) and Appellate (#7) from the Todd Pletcher stable. The former finished behind Weigh the Risks last time, but did well to get up for fourth after blowing the start. She could be dangerous here if she gets away cleanly. Appellate got a perfect trip on debut, but still nearly won against a well-meant Chad Brown filly. These will be tough to beat. I’m taking a shot against those runners with turf experience with one of the first time turfers. Philanthropy (#6) is bred to love this surface. The Phipps homebred was off slowly and never seriously involved in the debut. She’s out of a dam who has produced 5 winners, all of which are turf winners. Among those are Grade 1 Belmont Derby winner Mr Speaker, turf stakes winners Fire Away and Vigilantes Way, and Grade 1-winning jumper Snap Decision. Shug McGaughey is 5 for 26 (19%, $2.59 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters going from dirt to turf over the past 5 years. There are plenty of signs pointing to her doing a lot better with this surface switch, and she figures to be a fair price with so many other appealing options signed on.

Fair Value:
#6 PHILANTHROPY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 2

The dropdowns will obviously be tough in this New York-bred maiden claimer. The horse to beat is clearly Mim (#9), who hasn’t been quite good enough to win at the maiden special weight level, but has nevertheless run pretty well in all of her starts since returning from a layoff for Mark Casse this year. She’s earned a series of speed figures that just make her a deserving favorite against this field. The drop in class seems a little aggressive given her credentials, but she can’t be dismissed. Bon Adieu (#4) has a similar profile as she drops for Danny Gargan. She’s finished behind Mim two back and hit the wire with that one on July 15. The drop makes sense for her as well, and she might be a better price with Katie Davis riding. Sweet Liberty (#7) could also be too big a price in here due to the presence of Katie’s sister, Jackie. Yet she has ridden this filly in most of her starts, and she’s run well enough to be competitive here on a number of occasions. Her recent efforts do leave something to be desired, but the drop might wake her up. My top pick is a horse who has already competed at this level. Scherzer (#5) debuted for this tag at Belmont, and got a pretty eventful trip. She was off a step slowly and then got rank rushing forward down the backstretch. She was moving nicely into contention on the turn, but then got steadied in traffic and lost valuable momentum at a critical stage of the race. She’s had some time off since then and now returns for her second start while getting a rider upgrade to Manny Franco. Ray Handal has good stats with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints.

Fair Value:
#5 SCHERZER, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

There are some first time starters with potential in this two-year-old maiden race, but experienced runners might have the edge going this 7-furlong distance. Genetics (#2) has already gone this far, having debuted at the distance in mid-August. She ran quite well that day, making a nice move to take over at the top of the stretch before leaning in and tiring through the lane. She figures to benefit from that experience, and has a right to improve here. Alpine Princess (#4) is another who figures to take a step forward in her second career start. She didn’t get away that well on debut, breaking slowly and getting bumped at the start. She made some good progress after that and launched a strong rally while wide on the turn before flattening out in the late stages. Brad Cox is dangerous with second time starters and she merits respect. My top pick is a second time starter who is switching surfaces. Nikitis (#5) was highly touted for her debut on grass, even though she doesn’t possess that much turf pedigree. She had worked very well for that career debut, including one drill in which she held her own in company with Ways and Means, the Spinaway favorite. That ability obviously didn’t translate to the afternoon, but she just never seemed to be getting over the turf as well as she had the dirt in the morning. I like her switching surfaces, and I expect we’re going to see a much better effort this time.

Fair Value:
#5 NIKITIS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

The Three Diamonds entry figures to garner support, and Jarreau (#1A) is clearly the stronger half of that pair. He has run plenty of competitive speed figures, and seemed to get back on track when dropped to this level last time. The issue with him is that he just doesn’t win, having not crossed the wire first since May 2021, some 20 starts ago. He makes sense and I’d use him in exotics, but he’s going to be a short price with Irad Ortiz aboard, and I think others will offer better value. Ski Patrol (#2) is a difficult runner to gauge. Linda Rice has twice entered him in turf sprints at this meet, both of which were rained off the turf, only to now stretch him out to 9 furlongs. I actually thought he was pretty interesting turning back, since he strikes me as one that wants to go shorter. He drew well here, but I prefer others. Harry Hood (#9) finished behind that rival when they met on July 28, but I thought he ran better that day, and would appreciate the stretch-out more. Mark Hennig does have good stats off the claim. I’m afraid of Empire Attraction (#4) coming up from Florida. These connections can be very dangerous, and he’s run fairly well in his recent starts for Saffie Joseph. The winner of this turf race two back would be a player here, and last time he exits a race from which 3 horses returned to win their next starts. His tactical speed could also be beneficial here as he switches into the barn of Danny Gargan with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. I had a tough time deciding between Empire Attraction and my eventual top pick, Born a Gambler (#3). I can’t say that I was this horse’s biggest fan earlier in his career, but he’s continued to progress despite a series of trainer changes. Mike Maker is definitely the best turf trainer that has conditioned him, and he seems to be improving under his care. I liked his win two back, even with a perfect trip. Then last time he never had a fair chance, chasing from mid-pack in a race dominated on the front end. I don’t mind him trying 9 furlongs again, and he’s drawn well with some tactical speed.

Fair Value:
#3 BORN A GAMBLER, at 5-1 or greater
#4 EMPIRE ATTRACTION, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

Dontmesswithtess (#10) may go favored here as she attempts to get back to the winner’s circle for the first time since she was claimed out of a winning effort by Mike Maker in January. Her form has been heading in the right direction recently, and she ran one of her best races last time in defeat. Racing over a rain-softened course, Irad Ortiz Jr. made a premature move to lead at the top of the stretch before proving vulnerable to a rival who was ridden more patiently. She makes sense, but she won’t be much of a price and I’m not convinced she necessarily gets better with more distance. Among her main rivals is Diamond Status (#8), who steps up in class off a maiden victory, though that performance stacks up very well against this field. The race got a TimeformUS Race Rating of 98, matching that of today’s race, suggesting this really isn’t much of a class hike in terms of field quality. She also was much the best on that occasion, surviving a fast pace to kick on again in deep stretch and hold off two late-runners. It did take this filly 14 attempts to win her maiden, but she was overmatched in a number of those races and has generally run well when she’s gotten the chance to route on turf. My top pick is Miss Kristy (#7). There appears to be some speed signed on here, and we have seen plenty of races on the turf courses this week going to closers even when it doesn’t appear there’s a ton of speed on paper. Miss Kristy is a late-runner who has to improve a bit on her prior speed figures to contend against a field of this quality. Yet I really liked the way she was progressing through the first half of this year. She gamely ran on for second at Tampa in February, and that was the day the light bulb seemed to turn on. She won her next two starts, including her first attempt against winners in May, with a strong late kick. She was closing into a quick pace on that occasion, but she figures to get another good setup here. She’s going to be a price for lower-profile connections and I think she still has upside.

Fair Value:
#7 MISS KRISTY, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 2

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1: 7 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 2 - 1A
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 10 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 11 - 10 - 6
Race 10: 1 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 11: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 12: 5 - 2 - 4 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2:
#6 GUNTOWN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4:
#7 LUDWIG, at 6-1 or greater
#4 CHILENO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7:
#9 DIVE BOMBER, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8:
#3 THIN WHITE DUKE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10:
#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11:
#3 WARRIOR JOHNY, at 9-1 or greater

Race Day Live